Is Free Will a Myth? What it Means for Economic Inequality

Ask yourself: Did I freely choose to read this article, or was it the result of the algorithmic Gods? We make decisions daily, believing we are in control and responsible for the consequences, but how ‘free’ are those choices?

Neuroscience uncovers an uncomfortable truth. Our brains make a decision 7-10 seconds before we are consciously aware of it. And if this neural lag was shaped by a chain of events beginning at childhood-upbringing, genetics and environment, can we really say we made the decision freely? Or are we, as philosophers and scientists suggest, living in a simulation inspired by circumstances beyond our control?

Free will suggests that we make choices independent of past experiences, external influences and biological constraints. Yet, we often hear the phrase “prisoners of our past.” With the help of my most trusted companion, data, I dissect our understanding of success, failure and inequality.

When Odds are Never in Your Favour

We often hear that hard work and talent are the golden tickets to success - the core of meritocracy. However, belief in meritocracy is closely linked to free will. If everyone is thought to have complete autonomy, it is easier to blame one's socioeconomic status, like poverty, on individual failure rather than systemic barriers.

Research shows that people primed to believe in free will are more likely to attribute poverty and inequality to lack of effort and are less likely to support policies that address inequality and vice versa. But what if effort does not matter as much as where you start? The data suggests a sobering reality:

• As social mobility researcher Raj Chetty points out,

In the United States, children born to parents in the bottom fifth of the income distribution have a 7.5 percent chance of reaching the top fifth... your chances of achieving the American dream are almost twice as high in Canada as in the U.S.

Not only does it put a pin in the ‘American Dream’ but also hints that the rags-to-riches stories, while intensified, are becoming increasingly rare.

• In India, a developing country, the picture is even starker: children of the poorest 20% of households have a meagre 3% chance of making it to the top 20%, with over half (52%) likely to be trapped in poverty. The caste system continues to dictate professions, engaging lower castes in unproductive and low-income positions.

• In South Africa, the effects of colonialism and apartheid still linger. A low-income family would take 9 generations to reach the mean income level in the country.

Besides access to better-quality education, healthcare, and networks (think referrals, role models), several psychological hindrances restrict social mobility. For example, the constant stress of survival, what behavioural economists call a ‘Scarcity Mindset,’ can be a severe cognitive burden.

On average, a person preoccupied with money problems exhibited a drop in cognitive function similar to a 13-point dip in IQ, or the loss of an entire night’s sleep.

This mental tax, distinct from stress, makes it exponentially more challenging to make long-term decisions (e.g. education, healthcare investments) that help to break the shackles of poverty.

Rewriting the Script

If free will is indeed an illusion, then it is time we design our systems to counterbalance life’s lotteries:

• Mobility Engineering: The Nordic model is a fine example that inclusive development can be engineered through universal safety nets like free childcare, quality public education and healthcare. These interventions not only reduce socio-economic inequality (although increasing in recent times), they also ease status anxiety, ie, the pressure of conforming to ideals of success, by making opportunity less dependent on background.

• Power of Friendships: Raj Chetty also finds that children from low-income backgrounds who form friendships with wealthy peers are likely to earn higher incomes in adulthood. So, who you know does matter. Simple interventions like desegregating schools, careful design of classrooms, public spaces, etc., can be inexpensive methods for the rich and poor to interact with each other.

• Nudging to Psychological Freedom: Now that we have shattered the idea of free will, 'nudging' people towards decisions can break determinist cycles. For example, providing cash to poor households on the condition that they enrol their children into school in Morocco documented increased school participation and heightened the belief in education as a 'worthwhile investment'.

Should We Rethink Meritocracy?

If success is dictated by unchosen factors such as genetics, upbringing, networks, and culture, it is perhaps time to reconsider what we mean by ‘merit’.  Are the rich truly deserving of their wealth and the poor of their struggles?

Understanding the myth of free will is not about absolving responsibility but rather about acknowledging that the playing field was unfair to begin with. So, the next time you hear that poverty is a choice, remember the real choice is whether to perpetuate these systems or change them.