Migration as a Climate Adaptation Strategy: A Solution for Developing Countries?

The number, frequency and impact of extreme weather events including floods, droughts, and heatwaves are steadily rising across the globe, with developing countries bearing most of the brunt. The effects of climate change combined with the existing challenges of conflict and economic hardships are pushing many communities to seek safer ground. While migration, if managed effectively, can be a powerful tool to reduce vulnerability and build resilience to the changing climate, is it that straightforward? This post evaluates the benefits, drawbacks, nuances and potential policy support for this complex issue. As my team and I brainstorm innovative policy solutions for climate change adaptation, I wanted to share these insights to spark further discussion.

Contrary to popular belief, most environmentally driven migration, whether triggered through sudden change or natural disasters, happens within borders and is temporary. According to the Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (IDMC), as of 2023, there have been 75.9 million displaced people with 7.7 million due to natural disasters. While acute disasters typically lead to short-term displacement, people only tend to move permanently or further away if events recur frequently or cause massive losses. However, data on permanent migration and migration specifically linked to slower onset events such as sea level rise, increasing temperatures etc. remains scarce.

Mobility can be a pathway to better economic opportunity and improved overall well-being, as in the case of climate change. Communities suffering from land degradation, biodiversity loss, deforestation, food insecurity and water scarcity often face migration pressures. Migration as an adaptation strategy can help to reduce vulnerabilities and generate new sources of livelihood, with remittances benefitting families in the place of origin. These global remittances which reached $836 billion in 2022, also have the potential to support climate change adaptation projects in developing countries, where climate finance is sorely deficient. While remittances come with their shortfalls such as the dependency fallacy, the advantages are hard to dismiss.

The Dual Face of Climate Change Migration

However, not all individuals and communities can reap the benefits of migration. Many marginalised households, communities or individuals lack the financial, social or political means to move. This has led to the formation of ‘trapped populations’ stuck in not only unproductive but also dangerous situations. Even for those who can relocate, resettlement also comes with its set of psychological strains when communities are separated. The cultural disparities, language barriers, and social isolation can lead to several mental health challenges. Moreover, certain communities also refrain from moving due to the deep irrevocable connection to their homelands.

The experiences of migrants are also not created the same. For example, when the drought in the Horn of Africa forced 3.3 million across Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia to flee their homes, it was mainly the younger and relatively prosperous populations who were able to seek assistance. As an elder in the Atalokamusio village, Turkana, Kenya’s poorest county, succinctly describes the disparity:

The young travel to Uganda, taking what remaining livestock have survived from our community, while the elderly and disabled remain behind, praying to God to bring the rain.

In rural agricultural communities, where the men migrating for work during the off-season is common, the female household member is burdened with the maintenance of the farm along with managing the household chores. The rise in time poverty disproportionately affects women and girls, who are more likely to face moderate to severe food insecurity, perpetuating gender inequities. Alarmingly when women and girls do migrate, they may encounter increased risks of violence, abuse and trafficking.

In Ethiopia, for example, the number of girls sold into early marriage in exchange for livestock increased after drought-induced migration, as families struggled to cope with these extreme conditions

Furthermore, the question about the use of remittances persists: what portion would be directed towards adaptation measures, such as drought-resistant crops, and how much would go to more immediate priorities? Additionally, since cities are the destinations for migration, it can also strain already overstretched infrastructure and social services, potentially worsening the climate crisis.

Integrating Migrants into Climate Solutions

For now, climate change does not top the list of reasons to migrate. Nevertheless, it is estimated that displaced people will rise to 1.2 billion by 2050 as disasters become more frequent and harsher. For internal migration, migrants must be provided with adequate financial support (available for mass climate change migration by natives in the developed world) and integrated into policy discussions, so their voices are heard. As Professor Neil Edger from the University of Exeter notes:

Participatory urban planning and deliberative approaches can support the inclusion of diverse perspectives on building safe, sustainable and resilient cities and can support migration as successful adaptation.

For international migration, albeit with its challenges, there may be a need to expand the legal protections provided to climate migrants. Perhaps, considering climate change as a basis for refugee status, according to the 1951 Refugee Convention? Although, I will leave that question to the human rights lawyers. However, I will suggest examining the examples of regions like Eastern Africa, Argentina, and New Zealand, where climate migration policies are being experimented with, which could serve as foundational elements for future models. As for the economic argument, while the host economy would take some adjustment to immigration, evidence suggests that the increase has little to no impact on the employment and wages of natives nor on crime.

Moreover, the urgent need for granular data on migration by gender, age, and remittances cannot be overstated.

So, is migration the answer to climate change adaptation? Not entirely. Migration, while a tale as old as time, can be part of the strategy, it is no panacea. To ensure that climate change migration is planned and safe, we need policies that support local adaptation efforts, leverage remittances for resilience, and create legal pathways for migrants. Adaptation requires more than just moving people away from the vulnerable hotspots; it demands avant-garde and human-centric policy solutions for climate action that empower individuals to retain control over their migration choices and help navigate the uncertainties of climate change with nobility.